India Macro stories
The Indian economy, policy and what it means for you
India Macro
India's biggest stock exchange is finally going public and it has to list on its rival
On September 4, the Securities and Exchange Board of India cleared the National Stock Exchange to launch its IPO, ending a wait of nearly a decade. The issue is an offer for sale of 14.89 crore shares, about 6% of the company, worth roughly Rs 30,000 crore. That would make it the largest public issue in Indian history, ahead of Hyundai Motor India's Rs 27,870 crore in October 2024, and implies a valuation above Rs 5 lakh crore. Subscription is expected to open September 15. The shares will trade on the BSE, the rival NSE has spent thirty years leaving behind.
7 September 2026 · 4 min read
India Macro
India grew at 7.8% and its stock market shrugged
India's economy expanded 7.8% year on year in the June quarter, comfortably beating both the Reserve Bank of India's 7% projection and a market consensus of about 7.1%. That is a strong number for an economy absorbing a six-month oil shock. The stock market's response has been a shrug. On Thursday the Sensex fell 417.49 points to 76,152.86 and the Nifty 50 slipped to 23,873.45, after opening higher and briefly crossing 24,000. Foreign investors have pulled $24.6 billion out of Indian equities this year. The index and the economy are not the same animal.
4 September 2026 · 3 min read
India Macro
Modi, Xi, and Putin shared a stage today. What they didn't share matters more
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin are together in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan for the 26th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit on August 31 and September 1, 2026, marking 25 years since the SCO's founding. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are also attending. Modi said he wants to "advance India's vision for the region, focusing on security, connectivity and opportunity," calling for a region "free from terrorism, separatism and extremism." A one-on-one Modi-Putin meeting is confirmed. A Modi-Xi bilateral has not been. The gap between who meets whom on the sidelines is where the real story sits.
1 September 2026 · 3 min read
India Macro
India is quietly luring $65 billion from NRIs before a deadline nobody's talking about
India's foreign exchange reserves climbed $9.9 billion to $716.9 billion in the week ended August 14, 2026, their highest level in six months, largely on the back of a special RBI deposit scheme for Non-Resident Indians. Under a swap window the central bank opened on June 8, 2026, banks can now offer NRIs up to 7.10% interest on FCNR(B) foreign currency deposits, tax-free in India, and it has worked: $65.4 billion flowed in through August 21. The window, which absorbs banks' currency-hedging costs so they can pass on higher rates, closes on August 31, 2026, giving NRIs only days left to lock in before rates likely drop back down.
27 August 2026 · 3 min read
India Macro
India promised the world $1 trillion in exports this year. It fell $150 billion short
India's total exports of goods and services are projected to reach roughly $850 billion in the current financial year, according to think tank Global Trade Research Initiative, or GTRI, well short of the government's $1 trillion target and a shortfall of about $150 billion. Last year's total stood near $825 billion. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava says goods exports, worth $438 billion in 2024-25, will likely stay flat this year, while services keep growing, weighed down by a global slowdown and steep US tariffs. Between May and November of the past cycle, exports to the US fell 20.7%, even as shipments to the rest of the world rose 5.5%. The trillion-dollar target, Srivastava says, is realistic. Just not this year.
17 August 2026 · 4 min read
India Macro
A carbon copy answer sheet just set an entire state on fire
Jharkhand's students have been on the streets for over two weeks, and it started with a single sheet of paper. A carbon copy of a successful candidate's OMR answer sheet went viral in July, showing the candidate cleared the 14th JPSC preliminary exam despite attempting only 48 of 100 questions. Since July 29, hundreds have held an indefinite sit-in at Ranchi's Jaipal Singh Munda Stadium. On August 10, thousands marched on the Assembly and were met with lathi charge, tear gas and water cannons. That same day, former JPSC chairman L Khiangte was arrested, three JPSC members resigned, and the government agreed to cancel three examinations. The students say that's still not enough.
14 August 2026 · 6 min read
India Macro
The RBI is spending billions a week just to keep the rupee from falling
The Indian rupee has weakened roughly 8.76% over the past year and touched an all-time low near 97 per US dollar earlier in 2026, pushed down partly by the Middle East war's effect on oil prices. The Reserve Bank of India has responded with near-daily dollar sales and steps that pulled in about $41 billion in capital inflows, including $36.7 billion through foreign currency deposits from Non-Resident Indians. That defence helped the rupee rally 1.2% last week, its best week since March. On August 5, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announces a rate decision widely expected to leave rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting, even as growth slows and inflation ticks up.
5 August 2026 · 4 min read
India Macro
Kerala's flood warning arrived after the flood already hit
Heavy rain battered Kerala from July 31 into August 1, 2026, dumping 184.2mm of rain in three days against a normal of 55.4mm, a 232% departure, with Pathanamthitta alone seeing a 533% excess. At least 11 died in Kerala and three more in a neighboring Karnataka landslide, a combined 14 deaths, with nearly 7,700 people evacuated to 275 relief camps. India's weather office had issued only an Orange alert the night before. The Red alert for the worst hit districts was issued at 7am, hours after the Pampa river had already breached its banks.
4 August 2026 · 4 min read
India Macro
India quietly became a phone exporting nation, and almost nobody noticed the ranking flip
Electronics Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw told Parliament on July 29, 2026, that India's mobile phone exports have surged 165-fold in a decade, from ₹1,500 crore in 2014-15 to ₹2.59 lakh crore in 2025-26. Mobile phone production grew 33-fold over the same period to ₹6.27 lakh crore, and India now manufactures roughly 99.2% of the phones it sells domestically. Mobile phones are now India's single largest exported item, ahead of categories that have dominated Indian exports for decades. Apple alone has shipped more than $50 billion worth of India-made iPhones since 2022.
1 August 2026 · 5 min read
India Macro
Fundamental problem in NEET exam, full story explained
India's NEET-UG medical entrance exam was cancelled in May 2026 after a massive paper leak, re-held under armed escort in June, and turned into a national crisis. At least 13 students died by suicide amid the chaos. A 26-day hunger strike by activist Sonam Wangchuk and a 10,000-strong march on Parliament forced Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan to resign on July 25. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has since named Infosys co-founder Nandan Nilekani to reform the exam system. But the leak was never the real problem. Even a flawless NEET would still turn away 21 out of every 22 students who sit it.
29 July 2026 · 4 min read
India Macro
India let Amazon and Flipkart hold their own inventory, but only to sell it abroad
India's Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade relaxed FDI rules on July 23, letting foreign-backed e-commerce firms like Amazon and Flipkart run inventory-based models, warehousing and selling directly, for the first time. The catch, it only applies to exporting Indian-made goods abroad. Amazon says the move supports its goal of exporting $80 billion from India by 2030. Trader body CAIT is already pushing back, warning about the "history of finding loopholes by major tech company to compete againse retail traders"
28 July 2026 · 4 min read
India Macro
India is carving massive holes in Rajasthan's salt deposits to turn oil storage into a profit engine
For years, India safeguarded its energy security by pumping millions of barrels of emergency crude oil into deep underground rock caverns. It was a purely defensive, expensive safety net. Now, the strategy is changing. India is preparing to build its first salt-cavern strategic reserves in Rajasthan. Unlike rock caverns, salt formations are self-healing and dramatically cheaper to develop. More importantly, India is adopting a commercial model, allowing global oil giants to lease the space, trade the oil, and turn an expensive security blanket into a revenue-generating asset.
20 July 2026 · 4 min read
India Macro
Two historical trading rivals just dismantled a mountain of import taxes to outrun regional competitors
A massive geopolitical trade agreement officially came into force between India and the United Kingdom. The sweeping bilateral pact eliminates near-total import tariffs across key industrial manufacturing and consumer retail sectors. For decades, Indian textile and apparel exporters operated at a severe structural disadvantage against duty-free competitors in European markets. But this historic activation levels the playing field overnight, giving a massive boost to local manufacturing hubs in Tiruppur and Surat.
16 July 2026 · 3 min read
India Macro
For 50 years, India rewarded states that had fewer children. That reward is about to be taken away
India once asked its states to control their populations, and the south did it best. To protect those states from losing political power for shrinking, India froze the number of parliamentary seats each state holds. That freeze ends in 2026. Now the south faces a painful reversal: the regions that had fewer children may lose seats to the faster-growing north, with one southern state potentially losing nearly a third of its voice. Success, it turns out, came with a hidden bill.
24 June 2026 · 5 min read
India Macro
India is growing fast. But an ocean near Peru could slow it down
India is the world's fastest-growing major economy. Yet the thing that could slow it this year is not a policy or a market, but the temperature of an ocean near Peru, 12,000 km away. When that water warms, a pattern called El Niño weakens India's monsoon, harvests shrink, and your food gets dearer. This year forecasters expect one of the strongest warmings on record, and India's weather office has already cut its rain forecast. Economy crisis incoming?
18 June 2026 · 5 min read
India Macro
India is the world's fastest-growing major economy. Its currency just hit a record low
India's real GDP expanded by a robust 7.7% for the full 2025–26 financial year, faster than China, US, and every other large economy on earth. In the same period, the rupee fell to nearly 97 to the dollar, its weakest level ever. The central bank spent billions of dollars trying to slow the fall. Both facts are true at the same time, and understanding why teaches you something most people get wrong about how money actually moves between countries.
17 June 2026 · 5 min read
India Macro
India's inflation is at 3 Percent. So why does everything feel more expensive than ever?
The government says inflation is under control, around 3.5 percent, the lowest in years. And yet rent keeps climbing. School fees jumped again. Eating out costs noticeably more than it did a year ago. Your salary went up. Your savings buy less. You are not imagining it, and you are not bad with money. The gap between the number the government reports and the inflation you actually live is real, and there is a specific reason it exists.
13 June 2026 · 5 min read
India Macro
India Is Making Fuel Cheaper and Cleaner. So Why Are Drivers Unhappy About It?
On World Environment Day, India launched E85, petrol that is up to 85 percent ethanol, the alcohol made from crops. It is priced about ₹20 a litre below normal petrol and burns far cleaner. Cheaper and greener should make everyone happy. Yet drivers are wary, because ethanol gives less mileage, so you burn more of it, and older engines were never built for it. And the real reason India is rushing this fuel out has nothing to do with helping you.
10 June 2026 · 7 min read
India Macro
Amid Everything Else India is Juggling, an Unexpected Problem Just Crossed a Line No One Saw Coming
In June 2026, a single number rewrote India's story: 1.9. That is how many children the average Indian woman now has, below the 2.1 needed to keep a population stable. The country the world was counting on to be its last great engine of young workers has quietly stopped replacing itself. Four countries reached this point before India. Three got rich first. One did not, and that one is the mirror India is now staring into.
9 June 2026 · 7 min read