US midterms 2026: what the results mean for India

The short answer: Democrats are projected to win control of the US House of Representatives after the midterm elections on 3 November 2026, according to NBC News and CNBC. For India, that does not end US tariffs or settle the trade deal overnight, but it does give Congress more power to question and slow down the Trump administration on trade and visas.

This post was written on the morning of 4 November 2026, India time, while votes were still being counted in the US. The Senate result was not yet known. We say clearly below which parts are settled and which are still moving.

What happened in the US midterms

Midterms are the US elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. All 435 seats in the House and 35 of the 100 Senate seats were on the ballot this year, along with 36 governor races, according to The Federal. Before the vote, Republicans held both chambers.

Here is where things stood late on 3 November, US Eastern time, which was the morning of 4 November in India.

None of this is unusual history. The Federal notes that since the US Civil War, the president's party has lost House seats in 37 of 40 midterms. What is notable is the scale. CBS quoted one senior Republican operative saying the night looked "biblically bad" for the party.

Results will keep changing through the day, and some close races may take longer. Check a live results page such as NBC News or CBS News for the latest count.

Why should India care about a US election for Congress?

Because the US is one of India's largest trading partners and the main destination for Indian tech workers on H-1B visas. Most of what has hurt or helped India in the past year came from the White House, not from Congress. But Congress writes the laws, controls the budget and can investigate the government. A House run by the opposition changes how much the president can do without a fight.

There is also a useful twist from this year. In February, the US Supreme Court made it clear that Congress, not the president, holds the main power over tariffs. More on that below.

Where do US tariffs on India stand today?

It has been a bumpy year. Here is the timeline, built from the ATB Legal status note dated 22 October 2026 and cross-checked against the sources linked in each row.

So today, most Indian goods entering the US pay their normal US duty plus 10%. Goods like steel and aluminium are excluded from that 10% because they already face separate Section 232 tariffs, which The Week puts at 25% to 50%.

The 18% rate in the February framework was never put into effect, according to ATB Legal, and the full trade deal has not been signed. Talks were still going on as of October.

Can a Democratic House change those tariffs?

Partly, and slowly. Three things matter here.

First, Congress has the constitutional power over tariffs. In the February ruling, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that the emergency tariffs touched Congress's power of the purse, according to Jones Day's summary. That gives Congress a stronger hand in any argument about trade.

Second, the current 10% duty did not come from Congress. It was imposed by the US Trade Representative under Section 301, after a review of forced-labour rules. Holland & Knight notes that India was placed in the lowest tier, at 10%, down from 13% in the June proposal. The rate can be removed if the US decides a country is properly enforcing its ban on goods made with forced labour. A new House cannot simply vote this away without the Senate and the president.

Third, the president still has a veto. Before the vote, Trump said that if Republicans lost, he would become "Mr Veto" and "veto everything" to force negotiations, as reported by The Federal. If that holds, the likely result is more gridlock, not quick change.

Indian analysis written before the vote sees some room for India in this. WION reported that India's foreign ministry had prepared plans for each outcome. In a split Congress, it said, India would likely try to close an interim trade deal quickly. That is reporting about plans, not a confirmed policy, so treat it as such.

What does this mean for H-1B visas?

This is the question most Indian readers ask, so here is the plain status.

The $100,000 fee for certain new H-1B petitions, announced in September 2025, is not being collected right now. According to the University of Colorado's international office, updated 7 October 2026:

• On 8 June 2026, a federal court in Massachusetts ruled the fee unlawful and ordered the government to stop collecting it.
• On 24 July 2026, the appeals court refused to pause that ruling, so the fee is not required for now.
• In September, a new proclamation tried to extend the fee to 21 September 2027.
• On 30 September 2026, a federal court in California blocked it as well, including the extension.

Law firm Clark Hill confirms the June and July rulings and says employers are not currently required to pay it. The government's appeal is still pending, so it could come back.

These cases are in the courts, not Congress, so the midterm result does not decide them. What a Democratic House can do is hold hearings, question visa policy and refuse to pass new limits. The Federal makes the honest point that a Democratic majority could scrutinise restrictive rules but would not guarantee more H-1B visas or easier processing. If you are on a visa or planning to apply, follow USCIS updates and speak to an immigration lawyer rather than reading election headlines.

What happens to markets and the rupee?

On election night, CNBC reported US stock futures falling, with Nasdaq-100 futures down about 2%, as traders worried about what a Democratic Congress might mean for AI and data centre stocks. That is one night of trading in the US, reported by one outlet, so do not read too much into it.

For India, the bigger forces are the usual ones: oil prices, the dollar and foreign investors. The Federal points out that oil effects depend mainly on wider geopolitics, not on the election result alone. We wrote about how those pressures hit the rupee in this story on the rupee's record low.

What changes and what stays the same

Here is the simplest way to hold it in your head.

Remember the calendar too. The new Congress takes office in January 2027. Until then, the current Republican majorities stay in place.

What should you watch next

• The Senate result. If Democrats win both chambers, Congress has more leverage. If Republicans keep the Senate, expect a split government and more stalemate.
• The India-US trade deal. Any signing, or a fixed date for one, would matter more to Indian exporters than the election itself.
• The H-1B appeal. A ruling from the appeals court would settle whether the fee returns.
• Tariff refunds. The Supreme Court did not decide refunds of the struck-down tariffs, according to Jones Day. That fight is still in the trade court.

If you want to keep up with stories like this without living on your phone, our guides to following geopolitics without reading the news all day and following the news without the anxiety are a good start. For the trade side, our story on India's export target shows how US tariffs hit Indian exporters last year, and the best ways to follow Indian business news covers where to track it from here.

This is a news summary, not investment, legal or immigration advice. We will not update every seat count here, so check a live results page for the final numbers.

Sources

• NBC News: 2026 Senate results and House projection
• CNBC: Midterm elections 2026 live updates
• CBS News: Election Day 2026 live updates
• The Federal: Why should India worry about US midterm polls?
• WION: US midterms 2026, India's diplomatic playbook
• White House: United States-India Joint Statement, 6 February 2026
• ATB Legal: India US trade deal 2026, status and tariffs
• Drishti IAS: India-US trade deal 2026
• Jones Day: US Supreme Court invalidates IEEPA tariffs
• Holland & Knight: New Section 301 forced-labor tariffs imposed on 60 countries
• The Week: US tariff surcharge on India expires, new Section 301 duties
• University of Colorado ISSS: $100,000 H-1B fee current status
• Clark Hill: First Circuit blocks reinstatement of $100K H-1B fee